Bangladesh brace for worst Covid outbreak by June-end: Experts
With Covid cases keep soaring in frontier districts apparently as a result of the highly contagious Indian variant, authorities fear that Bangladesh may face the worst outbreak of the deadly virus towards the end of June next, studies UNB.
They said if the B.1.617, referred to as the Indian variant, could make its way into the areas from the bordering districts, Bangladesh will probably witness a lot more than 20,000 cases a good day found in early July, raising the fatality amount sharply.
Insufficient necessary oxygen source and other healthcare conveniences may aggravate the problem, based on the experts.
They suggested putting the frontier districts, particularly where in fact the virus infection rate has already gone up, under strict lockdowns like Chapainawabganj and halting inter-district public transport services to support the virus locally.
Besides, they said, the federal government should take satisfactory preparations in advance to handle any grim condition like found in India and Nepal by increasing the amount of medical center beds, treatment facilities, products, establishing field hospitals and finding out potential options for collecting necessary oxygen products.
Although country’s average Covid positivity charge was 8.15 percent on Monday, it was very high in several districts along the Indian border.
Chapainawabganj was the worst-hit district with 55 percent infection amount, forcing the neighborhood administration to enforce a good 7-time strict lockdown.
Besides, the positivity charge was above 40 percent found in Rajshahi.
The infection rate was also saturated in various other frontier districts like Satkhira, Jashore, Jhenaidah, Dinajpur, Meherpur, Chuadanga, Sylhet and Moulvibazar.
Speaking with UNB, DGHS spokesman Robed Amin, stated the deadly Indian variant has recently entered the country and there may be a full-level outbreak of the virus whenever it spreads in the united states.
He said Covid clients with Indian variants were within bordering districts, including Chapianwabganj, Rajshahi and Jashore. ‘It’s alarming media. As this variant spreads quickly, the infection charge may continue to surge very seriously, if people display apathy to masking up and abiding by health safety rules.’
Apprehension
Infectious disease qualified Dr Be-Nazir Ahmed, a former director (Disease Control) at the DGHS, thinks the bordering districts are actually seeing a little bit of outbreak of the virus due to the prevalence of the Indian strain.
He said it really is still difficult to state whether Bangladesh will witness an identical scenario like India. ‘We’ll evidently understand the situation a couple of weeks afterwards. It depends on the amount of the outbreak and the government’s preventive measures. If we are able to contain the variant locally by enforcing strict lockdown before it spreads to important cities, we might not exactly experience a dangerous situation like in India and Nepal,’ he said.
Dr Be-Nazir said India has been witnessing over 3 lakh situations for many weeks, including over 15,000 found in West Bengal. ‘Nepal has also been witnessing 8,000-9,000 cases mainly due to the Indian variant. So, if this strain spreads across Bangladesh, we might record over 20,000 cases each day towards the end of next month or early on July. The daily instances may even maximize to 40,000 if the federal government fails to take preventive methods and force persons to use masks and follow wellness safety guidelines.’
Bangladesh Como Modelling Group, a group of health authorities from both Bangladesh, the USA and Canada, also projected that the united states will witness a significant spike in Coronavirus situations mid-June next or at the end of that month as a result of holidaymakers travel rush before and following the Eid combined with the entry of Indian variant.
Talking to UNB, Dr Abu Jamil Faisel, an associate of the modelling group, said they have submitted their projection to the DGHS on, may 12 with some suggestions to control the problem.
He said they wonder Bangladesh could see over 10,000 cases a day at the end of June and it could continue to increase later if the virus outbreak can't be manipulated in bordering districts. ‘Various trucks carrying mangoes happen to be arriving at Dhaka and other areas of the united states from Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj and additional adjoining districts. So, it'll be difficult to control the pass on of the upsurge of the Indian variant.’
Possible consequences
Dr Be-Nazir said if the united states records over 10,000 instances for some weeks it will be tricky to control the situation as it doesn't have satisfactory hospital beds, oxygen production, ICUs, doctors, nurses and various other facilities and equipment to look after such a wide array of patients.
He said the demand for oxygen was practically 210 tonnes a working day when Bangladesh reported above 7,000 situations for a few days in April. ‘Consequently, when the conditions will cross 20,000, we’ll want at least 600 tonnes of oxygen a working day to treat the Covid patients. Therefore, oxygen is definitely the major fret for Bangladesh if the virus circumstances go up like in India. We’ll also face insufficient oxygen concentrators, high-flow nasal cannulas, oxygen masks, standard and ICU beds and other necessary equipment’.
What ought to be done?
‘We should first get our efforts to regulate the virus in the areas where it has recently started spreading in order that it can’t reach other areas of the region. We must keep carefully the border shut with strict monitoring before situation gets normal in India,’ Dr Be-Nazir said.
Besides, he said, the government should immediately try to make projections of some probable Covid scenarios and prepare yourself to tackle those.
‘For example, if the government produces a projection that the conditions may rise to 10,000 towards the end of June, in that case it should work out ideas about how to control it. Now we’ve primarily the Dhaka-centric covid administration system. We can distribute it and prepare the upazila, district and divisional hospitals to deal with the problem,’’ said Dr Benazir.
He said oxygen, high-move nasal cannula oxygen concentrators should be there in the district medical center and central oxygen and satisfactory ICU beds can be ensured in the divisional hospitals to ensure that 95 percent individuals get treatment in their own divisions or perhaps districts.
Besides, he said, the government should determine the oxygen demand if the problem becomes worse and do something from nowadays on to meet it by importing oxygen and increasing local production. ‘The authorities should now get in touch with the countries from where it could import the oxygen when it's needed.’
Dr Faisel said the government should now give attention to the frontier areas and rise Covid tests and call tracing extensively there to regulate the outbreak of the Indian variant.
Bangladesh’s existing capacity to deal with Covid
Dr Robed Amin said the federal government is building all-out efforts to create ready hospital beds and isolation centres to deal with any worse scenario. ‘We’ve already increased central oxygen supply systems, high-stream nasal cannula, oxygen concentrators, masks and cylinders for making sure uninterrupted way to obtain oxygen.’
Besides, he said, the DGHS has already signed MoUs with most private businesses, including Abul Khair Group, to supply their oxygen for medical work with when you will see a crisis regarding a spike found in Covid cases.
He said Bangladesh can produce almost 200 tonnes of liquid and gas oxygen for the utilization of Covid sufferers. ‘But there’re many companies who produce oxygen for different industries. If indeed they supply their important development of oxygen for medical treatment, then we’ll manage to meet the daily demand for 600-700 tonnes. If the demand increases to at least one 1,000 tonnes a day, then we’ll encounter a problem.’
Besides, the government includes a stock of 900 tonnes of oxygen to take care of Covid-19 patients through the crisis period.
Dr Robed said there are 1,069 ICU and 12,059 standard beds dedicated to Covid patients in the united states and 90 percent of them are now vacant.
