Bad weather, not Covid, to cut rice production
Rice production will probably decline by 5,50,000 tonnes in the May-April amount of 2020-21 from this past year therefore of cyclones, heavy rains and repeated floods, said a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) statement released on Thursday.
Production of the staple may fall one per cent year-on-year to 3.53 crore tonnes available in the market year (MY) of 2020-21 from 3.58 crore tonnes this past year, said the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) in its Grain and Feed Update on Bangladesh.
"The Covid-19 pandemic hasn't had a significant effect on Bangladesh's MY2020-21 grain production."
"However, severe weather in Bangladesh, which were only available in May and ended in August, has impacted Bangladesh's rice production and moderately impacted Bangladesh's corn production," said the report.
The forecast comes at the same time when prices of rice are on the upward amidst speculations of reduced crop harvests for repeated floods and slow release of grain by large farmers and traders.
Grown in the monsoon, aman rice accounted for 39 per cent of the grain output within the last marketing year, in line with the USDA report.
Because of disruptions and delayed planting as a result of floods, the entire yield of aman rice might decline by 5 % from last year's total of just one 1.40 crore tonnes.
Furthermore, cyclone Amphan, which hit the country in-may, had a "direct impact" on boro rice, the biggest crop, according to the agency.
It said the production of boro, harvested by farmers in the April-May period, dropped this year to 1 1.93 crore tonnes.
"Since May, Bangladesh's grain farmers have had to overcome a cyclone, heavy monsoon rains, and regular inflow of floodwaters from India," said the report.
Floods started with heavy rainfall on June 17 and didn't recede before end of August. It caused Bangladesh's 200-plus rivers to overflow, impacting over 40 % of Bangladesh's landmass, added the report.
The USDA estimated total acreage of aman to be 58 lakh hectares, slightly down from that the previous year. Since August, flooding has receded and the impact on the aman rice season is expected to be mild, it said.
Citing the Ministry of Agriculture, the report said aman crop on 100,000 hectares of land will be affected this season.
However, Bangladesh's rice consumption and imports are anticipated to increase this season, in line with the report.
The USDA said rice import may increase to 5,00,000 tonnes in the MY 2020-21 as the government faces difficulty in procuring rice from the domestic markets.
The average retail price of coarse rice was Tk 45 per kilogramme in October this season, which was 32 per cent higher than that this past year.
"Retail prices of milled rice are increasing irrespective of the category. Analysts attribute the upsurge in domestic prices to market speculation therefore of the Covid-19 pandemic," said the USDA.
The report noted falling stocks of food grains in government warehouses, stating that replenishment of rice stocks through procurements was critical in stabilising the domestic market and ensure the option of food.
