Agriculture sector’s resilience on the wane: What to do?
The resilience of the domestic agriculture sector mainly of the crop sector appears to be in a weak state. Without proper policy intervention the pressure on the agriculture sector would increase further and would result in a number of challenges on food security for a sizable section of individuals in the coming months.
Although Bangladesh economy has been confronting multiple challenges since March 2020 because of Covid-19 pandemic, the resilience of the agriculture sector mainly in rice production was a major relief for the united states.
Numerous positive intervention of the Ministry of Agriculture had ensured timely harvesting of Boro rice from major rice making regions such as haor areas. Even though production of non-crop agricultural products such as vegetables, poultry, dairy, livestock and partly fisheries have been badly affected.
And the government's policy intervention (Tk 9,000 crore for farmers and Tk 3,000 crore for livestock, fisheries and agro-based rural enterprises) wouldn't normally be of significant positive contribution.
Even the agriculture sector has been badly affected afterwards -- first by cyclone Amphan in the south-western Part of Bangladesh and later by three consecutive floods, which caused significant damages in 33 districts, inundating one-third of the country.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the flood caused a total damage of Tk 1,323 crore. The damage was mostly caused to the production of Aus rice, vegetables, fisheries, livestock and poultry etc.
As a result of flood, cultivation of Aman, which comprises the next highest share of rice production, would be delayed. Shortages of seedlings and delay in cultivation would affect the rice yield.
It really is to be noted that every monsoon season, a sizable part of domestic supply of vegetables are largely dependent on import particularly from India. Due to floods in lots of states in India, production of vegetables and other essential food items has been partly damaged there aswell. Thus, supply from India became pricier.
Overall, domestic way to obtain agricultural products-particularly essential products-are in pressure. That is reflected in food inflation data of the last two months (July and August, 2020).
Unless proper measures aren't taken into account, the meals inflation is likely to be increased further. Given the pressure of limited/no occupations and low/no income of a sizable portion of people, an inflationary pressure is there. A higher level of inflation would force persons to help expand downgrade their daily consumption which would finally affect their nutritional status.
The monthly food inflation during April-August period was higher in the majority of the months in 2020 compared to that in the last year. Food inflation has crossed the 6 % mark in 8 weeks of the year - 6.54 per cent in June and 6.08 per cent in August.
The food inflation is like to go up further in the coming months unless proper measures aren't taken. The retail market price of essential consumer goods has substantially increased.
In line with the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, retail price of coarse rice has increased by Tk 3 and onion by Tk 12 within a month (July-August, 2020). Similarly, price of other essential commodities such as green chilli rose by Tk 300-400 per kg, leafy vegetables and other vegetables around Tk 60-100 per kg. The persons atlanta divorce attorneys quarter has difficulty in purchasing those essential items according to requirement. Low earning people have previously changed their food habit - by shifting from consumption of fish, aside from meat, to vegetables by firmly taking less amount of food each and every time and even in extreme cases, sacrificing one meal of your day.
Under any circumstances, the prices of rice and essential foods should be stable. Given the damage caused to domestic production, supply in the local market wouldn't normally be increased unless satisfactory amount of these products are imported from neighbouring countries. Without adequate supply in the neighborhood market, food inflation is likely to be higher in September-November, 2020 period particularly till another crop is harvested.
The government should inspire the private sector together with itself to choose import of rice, onion, soybean and even vegetables from neighbouring countries at the earliest to give a sign to the marketplace for increased way to obtain food.
There is always a substantial time-gap observed in taking policy decisions. This gap is meant to be between your demand for imported food in the neighborhood market and public policy response in this regard.
Similar holds true in opposite direction aswell - controlling of import of food against good harvest at the neighborhood level. Failure to take timely decision leaves negative effect on consumers (in first case as stated above) aswell as on producers (in second case).
It really is expected that the Ministry of Commerce should be more proactive in taking decisions in regards to to maintaining stable supply in the domestic market and thereby ensuring the interest of both consumers and producers.
The Commerce ministry should take into cognizance of three issues with regard to facilitate/control import of essential foods - a) timely announcement of your choice to import (with import duty structure), b) specific period for allowing import (shouldn't be 'until further notice' type) and c) specific amount of allowable import (shouldn't be non-specified).
Given the existing state, the Ministry of Commerce should motivate the private sector to import different essential foods. The federal government may consider import of rice for increasing its public food stock.
Public food stock isn't at a wholesome state at present. According to the stock data, there was 10 lakh tonnes of rice available during July this season, which was lower compared to that of the last year's 14 lakh tonnes.
The government has successfully utilised the meals stock during Covid-19 and has continued supplying rice to flood-affected people. However, there is further demand for distribution of rice and other essential food items among the flood influenced people and coronavirus-affected people.
In line with the CPD this year, the government shouldn't use the set of poor people for distribution of relief in the flood damaged areas. The list ought to be widened to cover non-poor flood victims as well. Most of all, the rising food inflation has generated demand for way to obtain rice and other essentials among the poor persons at subsidized rates.
The government should increase its open market sales and other social support scheme activities particularly in flood afflicted areas. To pursue such schemes efficiently, the federal government needs to raise the food stock. It is crucial to notice that public food stock has important positive market-signalling effect in the private market. Since procurement of boro paddy was not successful-only 22 % was procured-and higher selling price made rice millers less interested to sell to government, it is vital to import rice by the government to increase its food stock immediately taking into consideration the demand for September-November 2020.
The stability in the rice market in the coming months would largely be based upon the acreage of Aman rice cultivation finally to be made by the farmers and its own harvest afterwards.
It is usually noted that the post-flood rice cultivation ensures higher yield when compared to normal period. However, delay in cultivation this year due to flood in most area of the country may have adverse effect in the Aman yield.
The government should immediately ensure adequate way to obtain seedlings for farmers over the countries in order that cultivation of Aman is not affected badly.
Given the consecutive adverse impacts on the agriculture sector, a huge part of farmers and farm labourers will be affected with regards to production, revenue, employment and wages. A significant number of people have returned to villages from cities in search jobs in view of Covid-19 pandemic.
Over 96,000 migrant employees have returned to Bangladesh and so are now staying mainly in villages and rural areas. These persons are also without job. The general public policy support in the sort of subsidised credit is basically undistributed among the farmers, agro-based entrepreneurs, informal sector employees and returnee migrants.
The conditions mounted on get those loans is difficult to adhere to by these folks. Hence, these people are largely without jobs, with low/no income and so are looking for jobs.
The inflationary pressure has worsened their life further. The federal government may consider undertaking large scale project in rural areas such as rural infrastructure development project to renovate roads, bridges, culverts in flood damaged areas according to the national budget 2021.
It may also look at a specific element of development of infrastructure in rural areas such as for example development of sewerage and sanitation system at thana and upazilla levels under its 'Amar Gram Amar Shahar' programme. Those income producing programmes would hugely benefit the rural people in getting employment and earn their minimum subsistence income.
