Young US voter turnout surges, but challenges linger
Early turnout by young voters has surged ahead of Tuesday's congressional midterm elections, powered by gains in states whose voters are pivotal to Democrats' chances of winning back control of the U.S. Congress.Young American activists, angry over President Donald Trump and a wave of deadly school shootings, had vowed to get their peers to the polls in unprecedented numbers.
The initial turnout, along with the results of opinion polls, higher registration rates and increased absentee ballot requests, suggests their political enthusiasm has not waned."In fact, as we get closer, I think it's only likely to increase," said John Della Volpe, polling director at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.
That could be good news for Democrats, who need a younger, more diverse electorate to win some of their toughest races. Young voters are more likely to be Democratic, and Reuters/Ipsos polling has found young Democrats are more likely than young Republicans to say they are certain to vote this year.
Initial estimates modeled from survey responses, voter registrations and other data show huge increases in early turnout of voters ages 18-29 compared with the last midterm elections in 2014.
In Republican-leaning Texas and Georgia, early and absentee voting by people under 30 has increased by more than 400 percent, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm tracking early voting nationwide.
In Florida and Arizona, ballots cast by young voters are up 131 percent and 217 percent, respectively, from 2014, TargetSmart's analysis shows.In comparison, among voters ages 30-39, voting is up by 121 percent in Florida and 172 percent in Arizona, the analysis shows.
Those states feature some of this cycle's highest-profile races, including the progressive campaigns of Beto O'Rourke for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, and Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams for governor in Florida and Georgia, respectively.
Overall early voting in those four states has topped their 2014 levels, fueled by increased turnout across all ages. Young voters registered the biggest gains but still had the lowest turnout so far of any age group.Early voting data does not reveal how someone voted and does not indicate what turnout will look like on Election Day.
Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Republicans should also benefit from the rising turnout of young voters due largely to the strong economy.
"Recent college graduates will see the best labor market in years thanks to the policies implemented by this Republican-led Congress, and those voters will be receptive to the Republican agenda," Hunt said.
