Japan to face 36% truck driver shortfall in FY2030: study

According to a recent study, Japan will have 36 percent fewer truck drivers than required to meet the country's logistical demands in fiscal 2030 due to its graying population and the introduction this year of reforms aimed at curbing overwork.

The Nomura Research Institute projected the country's road freight volume to be 1.40 billion tons in the fiscal year ending March 2031, slightly declining from 1.43 billion tons in fiscal 2020.

Meanwhile, the think tank said the number of truck drivers is expected to fall drastically from 660,000 in fiscal 2020 to 480,000 in fiscal 2030, 36 percent short of the workforce required to deliver 1.40 billion tons of cargo.

According to the study, the most notably affected regions will be Tohoku in Japan's northeast and Shikoku in the west. Both will see 41 percent shortfalls, followed by Kyushu in the southwest at 40 percent.

"It will be necessary to improve logistics efficiency to avoid serious economic effects," said Kazuyuki Kobayashi, the institute's logistics consulting group manager.

An overtime limit of around 18 hours per week for truck, taxi, and bus drivers was introduced in April as Japan looked to improve working conditions in industries struggling with acute labor shortages.

While the limit is aimed at preventing overworking, there is concern that shorter working hours will result in a drop in transport delivery capacity, a fall in service operators' revenue, and higher fees charged to shippers, an issue known as the "2024 problem."

Given pay increases due to driver shortages and rising fuel prices, the institute also estimated that transportation costs borne by shippers will rise 34 percent between fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2030.

With rising transportation costs certain to squeeze shippers' profits, the institute recommends that they seek further automation of warehouse operations and jointly hire trucking services with other firms.