How deadly is new coronavirus? It's still too early to tell
Scientists can’t tell yet how deadly the brand new virus that’s spreading around the world is really - and deepening the mystery, the fatality rate differs even within China.
As infections of the virus that triggers COVID-19 surge in other countries, a good low fatality rate can add up to plenty of victims, and understanding why one place fares better than another becomes critical to unravel.
“You could have bad outcomes with this in the beginning until you really get the hang of how exactly to manage" it, Dr. Bruce Aylward, the World Health Organization envoy who led a team of scientists just back from China, warned Tuesday.
WHAT DO WE REALIZE ABOUT THE DEATH RATE?
In the central China city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus first exploded, 2% to 4% of patients have died, according to WHO. However in the others of hard-hit China, the death rate was strikingly lower, 0.7%.
There’s nothing different about the virus in one place to another. Instead, the never-before-seen strain of coronavirus struck Wuhan fast - before anyone knew what the condition was - and overwhelmed health facilities. As is usual at the start of an outbreak, the first patients were severely ill before they sought care, Aylward said.
By the time persons were consistently getting sick in other areas of China, authorities were better able to spot milder cases - meaning there have been more known infections for each and every death counted.
And while there are no specific treatments for COVID-19, earlier supportive care may help, too. China went from about 15 days between onset of symptoms and hospitalization early in the outbreak, to around three days more recently.
Still, Aylward expressed frustration at persons saying: “'Oh, the mortality rate’s not too bad because there’s a lot more mild cases.' Sorry, the same number of people that were dying, still die.”
WHAT ABOUT DEATHS BEYOND CHINA?
Before past week, a lot of people diagnosed outside of China had become infected whilst travelling there.
People who travel generally are healthier and so may be better in a position to recover, noted Johns Hopkins University outbreak expert Lauren Sauer. And countries started screening returning travelers, spotting infections far earlier in places where the medical system wasn’t already strained.
That’s now changing, with clusters of cases in Japan, Italy and Iran, and the death toll outside of China growing.
Aylward cautioned that authorities ought to be careful of “artificially high” death rates in early stages: Some of these countries likely are seeing the sickest patients at first and missing milder cases, exactly like Wuhan did.
HOW DOES COVID-19 COMPARE TO OTHER DISEASES?
A cousin of the new virus caused the far deadlier severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003, and about 10% of SARS patients died.
Flu is a different virus family, plus some strains are deadlier than others. Typically, the death count from seasonal flu is approximately 0.1%, said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the U.S. National Institutes of Health.
That's far lower than what has been calculated so far for COVID-19. But millions of folks get the flu each year around the world, resulting in an annual death toll in the thousands.
WHO’S MOST AT RISK FROM COVID-19?
Older people, especially those with chronic illnesses such as heart or lung diseases, are more at risk.
Among younger people, deaths are rarer, Aylward said. However, many young deaths have made headlines, like the 34-year-old doctor in China who was simply reprimanded by communist authorities for sounding an early alarm about the virus and then later succumb to it.
In China, 80% of patients are mildly ill when the virus is detected, weighed against 13% who are already severely ill. As the sickest to get started on with are at highest threat of death, Aylward said, a fraction of the mildly ill do continue to die - for unknown reasons.
On average, however, WHO says persons with mild cases recover in about fourteen days, while those people who are sicker can take from three to six weeks.
Source: japantoday.com
