Coronavirus: Govt fears 50,000 cases and 1,000 deaths by May
At a time when the persons of Bangladesh are hoping that the ongoing lockdown will be lifted and the dangers of coronavirus pandemic will fade, the federal government has expressed fears that the situation may turn for the worst in the coming month of May.
The Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) has placed two predictions, terming the first ever to be conservative where some 48,000-50,000 persons could be infected and 800-1,000 of these might die by May 31, 2020.
The next prediction fears for the worst where cases of infections may rise to around 100,000.
DGHS Director General Professor Dr Abul Kalam Azad unveiled the two predictions at a virtual inter-ministerial meeting on April 21, that was chaired by Health Minister Zahid Maleque and attended by ministers and high officials from concerned ministries.
Dr Kalam also said the predictions on the coronavirus scenario in Bangladesh for the month of May were drafted by specialists under the supervision of the DGHS.
According to a summary of the meeting, Dr Kalam said several factors, such as the current state of the lockdown, awareness, social distancing measures, were considered while preparing the predictions.
“We are now getting ready to ensure treatment for the estimated number of patients of the pandemic according to the predictions,” he told the meeting.
How the predictions were made
Despite several attempts, Dhaka Tribune cannot reach DGHS DG Dr Abul Kalam Azad over the phone for further details on the two predictions.
However, while speaking with Dhaka Tribune, Health Ministry’s Medical Education and Family Welfare Division Secretary Md Ali Noor said: “The projection that some 48,000-50,000 persons could be infected and 800-1,000 people may die by May 31, has been compiled based on the current trend of the outbreak in Bangladesh.”
“As well, the next projection regarding Bangladesh was formed according to the ongoing global trend considering reports by the World Health Organization (WHO),” he added.
Md Ali Noor, who was simply also present at the inter-ministerial meeting on April 21, also said: “The DGHS positioned both predictions at the meeting to improve the country’s preparation to tackle the problem.”
“We have to anticipate to our better to tackle the upcoming situation,” he added.
“We are strengthening our preparations according to the predictions. We are managing resources according to the requirement,” said Habibur Rahman Khan, additional secretary of Health Service division.
How does the federal government plan to tackle the situation?
Health Minister Zahid Maleque told the inter-ministerial meeting that private hospitals are also included beneath the government’s initiative to create 6,000 beds ready for treating Covid-19 patients.
Besides, the federal government has been rushing to immediately recruit 2,000 doctors and 6,000 nurses.
Despite the government’s proceed to resume production in factories and agriculture along with its supply chain amid the public holidays, all educational institutes and places of public gatherings, such as for example transport stations and stores, will remain closed.
Experts believe that the federal government may be extended the general public holidays also, which includes been fixed till May 5.
However, officials and experts say that although the projections were made ready by mid-April, the government’s preparation for the upcoming situation remains inadequate.
Till now, the federal government has not been in a position to determine a proper treatment system for Covid-19 patients and authorities could not ensure protection of healthcare professionals, including doctors and nurses, from the deadly virus.
Concurrently, doubts remain if the country has enough trained doctors to maintain Intensive Care Units (ICU), which can become crucial for treating critical Covid-19 patients.
What do experts think about the situation?
Dr Tarek Hossain a former program coordinator at UNICEF in Bangladesh, said: “Bangladesh is currently at the ultimate stage, so we must focus on hospital preparation.”
“This is a matter of sorrow that we failed to stop the community transmission for reasons uknown,” he told to Dhaka Tribune.
“I think we now have to get ready more hospitals with satisfactory oxygen facilities for Covid-19 patients, simultaneously we are looking for more health employees for continuous medical care at this time,” he added.
Professor Dr Shah Monir Hossain, a former DGHS director general who now works as a health expert, told Dhaka Tribune: “I am closely working with a Covid-19 projection research in Bangladesh. In this sort of epidemiological data-based research, the email address details are assumptions predicated on several factors.”
“However, we are incredibly much worried about the country’s preparation as the Covid-19 scenario may turn for the worse in May,” he added.
‘I think, we are in need of three types of measures to avoid the coronavirus transmission,” Professor Monir Hossain said.
“First of all, we have to strictly maintain social distancing and personal health safety precautions. Secondly, the Health Ministry has to make a satisfactory number of isolation beds, ventilators and ICU beds for the patients. Thirdly, we must test an increasing number of to avoid the transmission,” he told.
According to the World Health Organization latest guidelines, 20% of the infected patients required hospital care.
Dr Monir also said on the average, 80% of Covid-19 patients can receive treatment at home however the rest would require hospitalization.
“I think we still do not have satisfactory ICU beds, ventilators and isolation beds for the 20% patients.”
“WHO said there are 4 types of patients; Mild, Moderate, Severe and Critical. We have to prepare more facilities for the severe and critical patients within May,” he commented.
Source: www.dhakatribune.com
